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February 01, 2005
Is the "Governator" No Longer Invincible?
The headline of this AP story screams: "Once-Invincible 'Governator' Dips in Polls."
A new survey by the Public Policy Institute of California shows that while 60 percent of the state's residents still approve of the job he is doing, he has lost considerable ground among Democrats and Independents, who together form the vast majority of the state's voters.Well...not exactly.
The PPIC poll compared the Governor's January 2005 job approval rating to his January 2004 approval rating. Exhibit 1 compares the data for both years by party and for all Californians.
The single-tail p-values for the change in the proportion of those who “Approve” from 2004 to 2005 were as follows: Dem (.10), Rep (.28), Ind (.30), Californians (.26). Statistically, the Governor's "Approval" rating did not change from 2004 to 2005, even amongst the surveyed Democrats. Although, the survey indicates that Californians shifted from not knowing if they approved or disapproved of the Governor's performance in 2004 to expressing firm disapproval of his job performance in 2005. As noted in the PPIC report, this shift was largest amongst Democrats and Independents.
What do you think could account for this marked shift in opinion of the Governor amongst Democrats, Independents, and even some Republicans?
I suggest that much of the shift can be attributed to the PPIC survey design and administration.
In this year's survey, the job approval question was #22. I suggest that questions #19 or #21, which preceded the approval rating question, provided information that may have "pushed" Californians (Dem. and Ind. in particular) from "Do Not Know" in 2004 to "Disapprove" in 2005.
These questions informed the survey respondents that the Governor's budget includes "withholding money from K to 12 public education," "reducing certain health and human services and general government spending," and asked "how concerned" Californians were about the effects of the Governor's proposed "spending reductions."
In 2004, surveyed voters were asked to make value judgments based on their prior knowledge of the issues. The survey questionnaire did not provide the type of preamble, like it did most prominently in questions #19 and #21 of the 2005 survey.
If the article suggests that in 2004 Arnold was "Invincible," this survey does not indicate an Achilles Heal for the Governator. Given the preamble of questions #19 and #21 in the survey, why did the Governor's "Approval" rating remain unchanged across party lines? Now there's the story!
Posted by Rick at February 1, 2005 10:06 AM
Comments
Nice new design. This is my first chance to check it out. Obviously you all care about the quality of what you put out. Nice analysis of the poll, mind if I quote you.
Posted by: Paula Whidden at February 1, 2005 12:20 PM
Thanks Paula! Still working out a few bugs, but hey... Please, quote away! (and tell your friends about us!)
Posted by: Rick Brady at February 1, 2005 12:47 PM