The next phase of the presidential campaign season began yesterday as Iowans held their respective caucuses (caucii?). Some surprises, and some expected results<\/p>\n
Democrats<\/strong><\/p>\n This is the “surprise” category. While only 1% behind the guy in front of her, and while getting 29% of the vote, Hillary Clinton (The Inevitable One(tm)) placed a disappointing 3rd behind Obama and Edwards. For a campaign machine that has been essentially running non-stop since 1992, this must be a serious blow. I heard on the radio this morning that she arrived in New Hampshire at 5am, apparently bailing out of Iowa as soon as she could. It ain’t over by any stretch of the imagination, but this is an upset.<\/p>\n As a blow against identity politics, which I’ve covered before, Barack Obama’s 38% victory shows that white folks will indeed vote for a black man with whom they agree. I think this goes for members of either party frankly. (I personally wished J. C. Watts had decided to run<\/a> when I watched him during the Bill Clinton impeachment debate.) Iowa has a lower percentage of blacks than in the country in general, and yet Obama won handily. I don’t agree with Obama’s policies, but I’m glad to see this result. Hope the girls at Spelman College<\/a> take a lesson from this and vote policy and position rather than color.<\/p>\n Republicans<\/strong><\/p>\n Huckabee picked up the win here, as expected. Well, as most recently<\/em> expected, not as anyone expected 4 months ago, which points out that polls really are just barometers of how people think or feel now<\/em>. Iowa GOPers are 60% evangelical, so quite likely identity politics did play a part here. See Bryan at Hot Air<\/a>, who notes that this is “a reversal in the way the two parties tend to think and choose their respective leader”. Indeed, and I really hope this isn’t a new trend. I do<\/em> generally want a candidate that shares my values<\/em>, but I’m not necessarily going to get hung up on their religion<\/em>. However, religion tracks quite closely with positions I want to see, so it does play a large part.<\/p>\n