An Unsung Benefit of a McCain Victory
Monday, November 3rd, 2008 at
7:20 pm
The polls and that entire industry might be finally be universally recognized as being as a completely useless tool/enterprise.
Filed under: Mark O. • Politics • Polls
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You think having a feel for people’s opinion based on legitimate scientific analyses is “completely useless”? In a democratic republic?
I think polls are a very useful tool. If I am opposed to a policy and I see that I’m in a significant minority – according to scientifically valid polls and surveys – that tells me something important: That I need to do my part to educate my fellow citizens about my cause. IF polls indicate that a large majority support my cause, that gives me tools and data with which to lobby my representatives asking for them to represent the people.
Can polls be wrong? Sure. Can polls be done less- or un-scientifically? Sure. Are polls an inexact science? Yeah, I reckon.
None of that invalidates the role that opinion polls have for policy makers and those concerned about policies. Right? They’re a tool. Not a perfect tool and they can be misused, but still useful.
On the flip side of things, if the polls turn out to be fairly accurate and Obama wins by 8-15 points, will you think that means that perhaps your assessment of polls is wrong?
Dan,
I think that polls are corrosive and an evil of our age, scientific or not. I think for our politicians they all to often replace reason, consideration, and thought. I don’t think the opinion of the majority or any group should be part of the forming of mine. Their ideas yes, their numbers no. And I think that holds even more for politicians than it does for individuals.
But your prediction of an 8-15 point win gives me hope that possibly if the race is close … and McCain still doesn’t win, the credibility of (and my personal campaign against) polls might still win some support. 🙂
Dan,
To clarify, I’m against them in principle and in practice … accurate or not (and I think they are far less accurate than people assume).
Yes, they are a tool … but so was the gas chamber. Neither should be used.
And to heck with the will of the people?
Not for me.
Dan,
Huh?!!
Polls emphatically the political process. Elections, campaigning, legislative wrangling, and all that are the political process. Polls are just a particular (and corrosive in my view) tool.
Do you have some notion that the 19th century political process was invalid and not “the will of the people” because they didn’t rely on opinion polls. That’s just crazy.
No, I did not say that. But it is another GOOD tool today. If we see polls saying that Candidate X having a handy lead and he/she ends up losing by a wide margin, one might reasonably think that investigating election fraud and/or problems.
Dan,
Gosh, now if I were to say Candidate X had a “handy lead” and he/she ends up losing … that the polls were flawed.
Do you think there was election fraud in, was it Pennsylvania or W Virginia, for which polls showed Obama with a comfortable lead but Ms Clinton in fact won (handily?). Polls wrong or fraud.
It is just as “good a tool” as a gas chamber.