Two Different Candidates With The Same Problem
2008 is shaping up to be an odd election season. For the first time in recent memory, both parties’ nominees for President will have secured their nominations without winning an overwhelming majority of their respective parties’ votes. Both Barack Obama and John McCain will have a lot of work ahead of them to unite their parties. But they also share another similarity: both of them may need to select a running mate more conservative than they are in order to win the election.
According to National Journal, Barack Obama is the most liberal member of the U. S. Senate. As last week’s resounding defeat in the West Virginia primary showed, Obama is weak among values voters and middle-class workers. He’s also had trouble winning votes among women. In order to win over the center and right of his party as well as appeal to independents, he would be well advised to select someone more conservative than he is. Obama’s inexperience will also be a liability and so he may want to look for someone with more experience. Of course, he can’t rule out the possibilty of selecting a woman as his running mate to help his appeal among women.
Meanwhile, John McCain has his own set of problems. Throughout the primaries, more conservative members of the Republican party gravitated towards Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson. McCain has long been perceived as having too much of an independent streak to suit Republicans. His age also becomes an issue. So picking someone who is younger and more conservative would be a wise move for McCain.
While the Vice-Presidential nominee normally doesn’t add much to the ticket, 2008 could prove to be an exception to that rule. With both parties’ nominees carrying significant weaknesses into the fall campaign, the choice of running mate could be the most critical decision these two candidates make during this election season.
Filed under: Democrats • Politics • Republicans • Tom
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I don’t think so, at least in Obama’s case. For most Dems I know, they would have been fine either way (well, there are a significant portion in the more progressive wing of the Dems and Greens that vote Dem that have a problem with Clinton, but it’s not going to turn out that way). I think once the nomination is secured, you’ll see a huge rally in favor of Obama amongst the Dems, the Progressive independents, and out there in general.
Obama will need to do some work reaching out to the more old-timey racist-ish edge of the Dems, but I don’t think this is significant. (There are folk in my grandparents and sometimes parent’s generations that aren’t especially racist – they love everybody and all that – but, God love them, they just can’t see voting for a black man. That’s what I mean by old-timey racism; the vestiges of hundreds of years of racism in our world.)
Just my guess, time will tell. But look and see if, by the end of June, there’s not a big Obama upswing in polls and surveys.
I do agree that this has been an odd year. It would be even odder if McCain won.
On the one hand, we have a candidate who has charisma and leadership skills like no one’s business, turning out thousands and TENS of thousands to his speeches, which take on a Rock Concert flavor.
On the other hand, we have a candidate who is not much liked nor supported by the party base and is only (mostly) getting support as the lesser of two evils.
On top of that, McCain hopes to succeed one of the least popular presidents in our nations history with basically the same platform!
For McCain to win would be an extreme oddity, seems to me, and not speak well of our system.
I think a McCain win would be more related to the fact that he’s the most centrist candidate the Republicans have had in quite a while, while Obama is the Senate’s farthest left member.
There are still issues in play, other than rock concert turnout.
Oh, I agree. The rock concert turnouts are not merely because Obama’s a nice guy. His positions are what’s exciting everyone I know. Go to his website and read his planks (which are FAR more extensive and detailed than McCain’s – and in many ways, more traditionally Conservative – conservative in the good way, not the Bush way – than McCain’s) and you’ll find a well-reasoned platform that people are excited about.
That’s part of my point: McCain’s issues are largely Bush’s issues, and they are not popular nor desired. We want positive change and I think McCain does not represent that.
I think all three of the candidates that we have left are flawed. Sadly we must choose one of them anyway! I think we need to pray that more real leaders, folks who don’t pander to specialty groups, will emerge the next go round. We need a conversion of heart in our country and so do our politicians! God bless! Padre Steve, SDB
I think we need to pray that more real leaders, folks who don’t pander to specialty groups
I agree wholeheartedly that we need leaders who don’t pander to special interest groups is vital to our democracy. But I’m wondering, who do you think Obama is beholden to?
That, to me, is one of his appealing features: He seems unbeholden to any special interest groups.