Conventional Wisdom Not Looking So Wise
Going into the Democratic primary, it was the conventional wisdom that this would be a walk-away for whomever won the Democrats nod. With war support low and Bush approval ratings in the tank, it would be no contest. And when it looked more and more like Obama would be the Democrats’ candidate, the possibility of electing the nation’s first black President is tantalizing.
So then, how is this possible?
With the dust having finally settled after the prolonged Democratic presidential primary, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a statistical dead heat in the race for the White House.
With just over four months remaining until voters weigh in at the polls, the new survey out Tuesday indicates Obama holds a narrow 5-point advantage among registered voters nationwide over the Arizona senator, 50 percent to 45 percent. That represents little change from a similar poll one month ago, when the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee held a 46-43 percent edge over McCain.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes Tuesday’s survey confirms what a string of national polls released this month have shown: Obama holds a slight advantage over McCain, though not a big enough one to constitute a statistical lead.
Frankly, I, too, was prepared early on for a Democratic president. I thought the combination of history and the Iraq war would sweep a Democrat into the White House, but the polls — first Gallup, now CNN – keep getting tighter and tighter.
It’s the Democrats election to lose. It could happen.
[tags]US politics,US presidential election,Barack Obama,John McCain,polls,CNN[/tags]
Filed under: Doug • Politics • Polls
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Consider this: In the past several elections, the contests have all been pretty close, with the winner defeating the loser (or at least supposed loser) by a few points in the popular vote – or not at all in the 2000 election.
Consider this, too:
At the same time, there is an overwhelming public openness to the idea of electing an African American to the presidency. In a Post-ABC News poll last month, nearly nine in 10 whites said they would be comfortable with a black president.
Nearly 90% of the US would vote for a black man. BUT conversely, over 10% of folk would NOT vote for Obama purely based on his race.
We’ve come a long way in regards to racism, but there are still folk out there who would not vote for an african american. Period. And that number may be (as this poll suggests) some 10% of the population.
Now, it’s a tricky thing to estimate and I sure don’t know for sure what it would mean exactly, but if race weren’t an issue, it sounds like to me that McCain would likely be behind by significant numbers. Maybe I’m thinking about this information incorrectly, but that sounds reasonable to me.
Ultimately, I expect that the polls will continue to track upwards for Obama in the coming weeks and months and – racism be damned – Obama will still win the election handily.
And to be absolutely clear: I am NOT at all suggesting that those who’d vote against Obama are racist en masse, just that there is a significant percentage of Americans still who would not vote for a black man or woman.
Certainly MOST folk who vote against Obama will be doing so because they don’t like his politics or think he’s too experienced. It’s just that, in addition to these normal types of detractions from a candidate’s numbers, Obama will be dealing with a small but electorally significant number of racists.
Which I think will ultimately make Obama’s win all the more poignant.
Sorry, I meant to post my link to that quote:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/06/22/ST2008062200049.html
Dan and Doug,
31% of the eligible population voted for Bush and 29% for Kerry in the last election. 40% didn’t vote at all. One relevant (but unanswered) question about your 10% is how many actually vote.
Dan,
Oh, and likely a larger fraction will vote for Obama purely on account of his race..
I maintain, that logically, if it racist and therefore reprehensible to vote for a thing on account of something superficial like skin color, then it is also equally reprehensible to vote for him because of it.
The percentage voting “for” because of race outnumbers those voting “against” because of race.